Finding MH370: 'Head for Home'

Assumptions

Key assumptions underpinning this theory of MH370's disappearance are listed below.

  Assumptions Importance Rationale / remarks
1 Unknown event/chain of events prompted diversion Core assumption Plausible scenario. Arguably more likely than “deliberate diversion” with zig-zag flight path and final turn south.
2 WMKK selected as diversion destination Core assumption that determines flight path heading To be confirmed by experts familiar with Boeing 777 FMC “adequate aerodrome” criteria, MAS/Jeppesen listing. Also assumed that routing is DIRECT TO.
3 Turnback occurred between 17:21 and 17:25 Core assumption that affects heading and length of flight path Earlier turnback not seen on radar. Later turnback would be beyond BITOD where HCM closest alternate. Turnback beyond BITOD would not reach debris zone at this Mach number.
4 Turn radius 7.3NM Non-critical assumption. Has minor effect on turn duration, heading, timing and end point Assumed that bank angle protection will not permit tighter turn. Lower bank angles remain compatible with debris zone but with slight modifications to time over WMKK, subsequent heading and final end point.
5 Base speed of TAS = ~483 +/-1kt, Mach 0.821 Important determinant of flight length but variation +/- 2% still compatible with theory No change in speed assumed between period prior to and after disappearance. Further refinement of speed assumptions, AP / aircraft performance effects, wind/temperature is desirable.
6 At WMKK AP revert to constant magnetic heading or track Critical assumption. Only constant magnetic courses compatible. HDG-hold or TRK-hold affect end points Understood that 777 FMS reverts to constant magnetic heading (or track) when flight reaches route discontinuity.
7 Fuel endurance Critical assumption. Assumed compatible with flight path length. Not assessed in detail. Speed/altitude in path models employed appear compatible with those assumed by the search investigators.
8 “Radar narrative” Core assumption that radar detections were unrelated to MH370. “Radar narrative” is incompatible with this theory Evidence basis of radar narrative (in public domain) highly uncertain. Reasonable to classify radar narrative as “possible, but unproven”.
9 BTO/BFO data interpretation Core assumption that current BTO/BFO interpretation must be in error. Mainstream theory assumes that BTO/BFO maintained fidelity after disappearance. There is a possibility that it did not.
10 Debris at 45S Core assumption that this was the wreckage of MH370 Reasonable interpretation of irrefutable physical evidence, believed by many at the time to be aircraft debris. No obvious alternative explanation for object size, multitude, clustering in this location.
11 Flaperon For this theory to be valid eventual debris drift to Reunion Island must be feasible. Drifter buoys shows this splash area is on borderline between SIO gyre and circumpolar current. Drift to Reunion is conceivable (if not probable) from this splash point.

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